The potential of electric bus integration in Baku’s public transport system for carbon emission reduction and air quality improvement

Abstract

Electrification of bus fleets is increasingly used to decarbonize urban mobility, but its environmental performance depends on local fleet structure, operational intensity, electricity generation, and charging capacity. This study evaluates the potential of electric-bus integration in Baku, Azerbaijan, using official transport data for 2024–2026, a scenario-based direct CO₂ model, and a qualitative assessment of local air-quality co-benefits. As of March 2026, the Azerbaijan Land Transport Agency reported that nearly 2,300 buses operated daily in Baku and that 368 electric buses were present in the city fleet, equivalent to about 16% of the daily operating stock. The new Albalılıq depot provides service capacity for 167 battery-electric buses and includes 42 chargers rated at 240 kW. Under an illustrative diesel-displacement assumption of 225 km per bus per day, 0.35 L/km fuel consumption, and 2.68 kg CO₂/L, one conventional bus produces about 77.0 t CO₂ per year at the tailpipe. Replacing 100 buses therefore avoids about 7,703 t CO₂ annually, while 368 buses correspond to about 28,348 t. If the announced additional 169 electric buses are introduced, the illustrative avoided direct emissions rise to about 41,367 t per year. These estimates exclude electricity-generation and lifecycle emissions; therefore, net climate benefits depend on the carbon intensity of charging. The results support phased electrification combined with route prioritization, charging-network planning, and progressive power-sector decarbonization.